Donald Trump's return: Bad news for Pakistan? What he said about India's neighbour

In 2018, former President Donald Trump famously slammed Pakistan, accusing it of deceiving the United States despite receiving over $33 billion in aid over the previous 15 years. Trump called out Pakistan for providing safe havens to terrorists, undermining U.S. efforts in Afghanistan. He took to Twitter, declaring, “No more!” signalling a major shift in the US-Pakistan relations.

Though Pakistan’s response to Trump’s rhetoric has been mixed, the relationship between the two nations has remained rocky, with aid and cooperation continuing to be a point of contention. Trump's first term marked a period of heightened tensions, and his second run for the presidency suggests this dynamic could be amplified even further.

A Transactional Future for US-Pakistan Relations

Recent reports suggest that under a potential second Trump administration, US-Pakistan ties will likely remain transactional, driven primarily by Pakistan's strategic value rather than deep diplomatic engagement or development assistance. The former president's preference for cultivating stronger relations with India, particularly as a counterbalance to China's rising power, could leave Pakistan sidelined in future US foreign policy.
Trump’s administration previously distanced itself from Pakistan’s concerns, especially regarding Kashmir, and such an approach may continue if he returns to office. This would likely mean less attention to longstanding issues that have historically shaped US-Pakistan relations, including the situation in Afghanistan and regional security concerns.

US-India Relations: A Growing Priority

Trump’s foreign policy priorities during his first term focused heavily on strengthening ties with India, often at Pakistan’s expense. As India increasingly aligns with the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, Trump's administration may continue to push back against Pakistan’s long-standing strategic partnership with China. This could have implications for Pakistan’s participation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a key part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has been a point of tension with India due to the route passing through Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

With China as a geopolitical rival, any further tightening of U.S.-India relations would likely result in increased scrutiny of projects like CPEC, as well as pressure on Pakistan to curtail its collaboration with Beijing. This could further strain Pakistan’s economic ties with China and heighten regional security challenges.

Trump’s Silence on Imran Khan Sparks Controversy

One of the most notable aspects of Trump's political stance on Pakistan in recent months has been his silence regarding the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Despite being publicly supportive of Khan in the past, Trump has refrained from commenting on Khan’s ongoing legal troubles and incarceration, even as the situation escalates.
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, argues that Trump's lack of engagement with Khan’s plight is indicative of his broader priorities. Unlike his comments on political turmoil in Bangladesh or violence against Hindus, Trump’s focus does not appear to include Pakistan’s internal political dynamics. This could signal a shift in the way the U.S. perceives Pakistan, with Islamabad possibly relegated to a lower priority in Trump’s foreign policy agenda.

Implications for the Future

As Trump’s presidential campaign gains momentum, analysts are watching closely for how his foreign policy agenda might evolve, particularly concerning Pakistan. If elected, Trump’s approach is likely to prioritise the U.S.-India relationship, limit U.S. aid to Pakistan, and scrutinise Pakistan’s economic and strategic ties with China. For Pakistan, this means a potential loss of diplomatic influence and a harder path in its relationship with the United States. As the geopolitical landscape continues to shift, Islamabad will need to adapt to a changing world order, with less room for maneuvering under a Trump administration focused on tough stances toward China and strategic partnerships in South Asia.